I don’t currently compete on incremental data or forecasting the next quarter.

I’m not properly set up to do so.

Instead I develop detailed views on businesses and am willing to lean into duration and volatility.

I don’t solely focus on monthly volatility and idiosyncratic P&L.

It matters but it is not currently the end all be all.

That said, the near term still matters.

Quarters turn into years. Years turn into decades. The short becomes the long term. It matters.

Most businesses are always (marginally) changing.

It’s important to rapidly digest new data to understand how.

Marginal eventually becomes material.

Material then causes changes in price and value, which is all that matters.

In short, I’m not looking to predict the next quarter’s numbers or predict how firms are positioned into the quarter.

I aim to ensure I have a refined lens to analyse individual businesses through.

How one chooses to utilize that lens will differ.

My goal is to ensure it’s clear and malleable.

This will help most investors agnostic of their realization horizon.

At the very least it should act as a trusted sounding board.

And that’s my current apporach.

Never hesitate to reach out with any questions.

David